CADC 2025: Seven Signals for the Future of Canadian Capital Markets

Seven Signals for the Future of Canadian Capital Markets

CADC 2025 identified seven signals transforming Canadian capital markets: technology reshaping trading, sophisticated retail investors demanding more, AI advancement outpacing regulation, liquidity pressures, and alpha strategies evolving. The key message: resilience alone isn't enough—market participants must embrace adaptability and reinvention to succeed.

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  • August 21, 2025
    September futures contracts face first notice August 29 and first delivery September 2, following the Labour Day holiday. The holiday timing prompts early roll trades as managers and dealers attempt to close September contracts ahead of schedule, creating optimal liquid roll dates between August 25 - 27. The holiday period typically creates more volatile roll pricing as market participation shifts. Additionally, futures have been trading rich to bonds since July, further complicating execution. Timing options will be active for CGZ and CGF contracts this quarter.
    August 13, 2025
    After a 43-basis-point tightening over 13 months, Canadian 5-year swap spreads are showing signs of stabilizing, opening up new opportunities in fixed-income markets. This tightening reflects changes in risk appetite, government bond issuance, and mortgage market hedging practices. While economic uncertainties persist, current spread levels suggest a potential for mean reversion, particularly when compared to historical trends. This market development provides tactical entry points for relative value strategies.