- Home
- Insights
- How to Use TMX Futures to Trade Different Macro and Crisis Scenarios
The Exchange's markets are closed today, July 1, 2025.
How to Use TMX Futures to Trade Different Macro and Crisis Scenarios
July 27, 2023 |
Author: Bilal Hafeez

- The US economy is proving strong on the back of resilient household balance sheets, despite still-high inflation. This suggests the Federal Reserve may hike more than expected.
- The Canadian economy is performing well, too. However, the average Canadian consumer appears more fragile than the average American consumer. Therefore, the Bank of Canada may hike less than the Federal Reserve.
- We examine the risk of a banking crisis in the US and Canada.
- Based on futures activity, we find investors are uncertain about central bank terminal rates.
- We consider how investors should position in different scenarios of dovish central banks, hawkish central banks and a bank crisis.
READ ARTICLE
Related Articles
-
May 6, 2025
A historic shift is occurring in the long-standing economic relationship between Canada and the United States. While mean reversion trades between the two economies have been reliable in the past, this traditional correlation is slowly unwinding after 30-40 years of close ties. This decoupling, though gradual, signals fundamental changes in trade patterns, bond market correlations, and cross-currency relationships.
May 20, 2025
June futures first notice falls on May 30th, with first delivery on June 2nd, 2025. Roll dates from June to September contracts are expected between May 27-29th, with no holiday disruptions. The overnight repo rate stands at 2.75%, projected to decrease by 0.25% by September. For Montréal Exchange fixed income contracts (excluding 30-year), CTD bonds with 2.75-3% coupons incentivize late delivery due to potential carry earnings.