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Interest rate derivative trading will cease at 1:30 p.m. today, December 31, 2025. Furthermore, the Exchange's markets will be closed on January 1, 2026.
How to Use TMX Futures to Trade Different Macro and Crisis Scenarios
July 27, 2023 |
Author: Bilal Hafeez
- The US economy is proving strong on the back of resilient household balance sheets, despite still-high inflation. This suggests the Federal Reserve may hike more than expected.
- The Canadian economy is performing well, too. However, the average Canadian consumer appears more fragile than the average American consumer. Therefore, the Bank of Canada may hike less than the Federal Reserve.
- We examine the risk of a banking crisis in the US and Canada.
- Based on futures activity, we find investors are uncertain about central bank terminal rates.
- We consider how investors should position in different scenarios of dovish central banks, hawkish central banks and a bank crisis.
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November 20, 2025
Analysis of the November 24-27 futures roll period for CGB, CGF, CGZ, and LGB contracts. First notice: November 28; first delivery: December 1. With CORRA rates at 2.26-2.27%, December contracts are expected to trade at a positive gross basis.
Expect significant selling pressure in front versus back contracts during the clean roll window, creating opportunities for relative value traders given the substantial buildup in open interest.
